Taking the Housing Market’s Temperature
If you were hoping back in January 2025 that this year would finally deliver a mild, sunny real estate climate, you were disappointed. The housing market has been anything but predictable this year, with conditions shifting moodily through spring, summer, and now into fall. Let’s take a look back at the markets blowing hot and cold, and see what the forecast might be for winter.
Spring: Glimmers of Warmth
Spring usually signals housing season’s first warm front, drawing in buyers and sellers after the winter chill. This year, March and April saw tentative activity, constrained by higher mortgage rates and nervous political and economic sentiment. But there were hints of lighter clouds ahead, with inventory inching up and some frustrated buyers poking their heads out. Prices were flat as a lake on a still morning.
Summer: Storm Clouds Gather, But Don’t Burst
As temperatures rose, so did some aspects of the market. By midsummer, housing felt humid and heavy, with inventory building and listings lingering longer. National prices mostly stayed level, rising just about 2% year-over-year by August, but sellers had to offer credits or price cuts to tempt increasingly cautious buyers. Mortgage rates still hovered uncomfortably above 6%, keeping demand cool. (Realtor.com).
Fall: A Surprise Indian Summer
Typically, fall means an early dusk for housing deals. Not this year. September 2025 delivered a surprising surge, with existing home sales rising 1.5% month over month, marking a seven-month high. (National Association of Realtors) Inventory rose 14% from the same time in 2024 as more sellers listed, but median prices edged up 2.1% YoY to $415,200. On average, homes are taking longer to convert to contract, and price cuts beecame the norm, even as buyers returned briefly in response to lower mortgage rates. (Reuters)
Only about 25% of homes sold above their list price, a marker seen as bellwether for the remainder of the year. (Redfin)
Winter: Partly Cloudy, With a Chance of Deals
Looking ahead, don’t expect a roaring blizzard or a sunny reprieve. The market forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and modest warmth through the colder months. Most experts predict house prices will keep rising slowly (think 1% to 3% over the next several months). (J.P. Morgan outlook) Mortgage rates may hover stubbornly in the 6.5–6.7% range through year-end, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Expect more sellers to test conditions, especially if rates dip again. But don’t count on a wild heat wave, this will remain a buyer-friendly market, as sellers are forced to get realistic on pricing and time frames.
The Reading
If you’re a buyer, fall’s unexpected warmth might mean better selection and less competition, but keep an umbrella handy for sudden showers like rate changes or local inventory spikes. For sellers, it’s a gentler, more seasonal climate. And as winter sets in, the outlook calls for cool but stable conditions, rather than ice storms or sudden melts.
Check back for a forecast update as the first snow falls!